Our systems have detected that you are using a computer with an IP address located in the USA. If you are currently not located in the USA, please click “Continue” in order to access our Website.
Local restrictions - provision of cross-border services
Swissquote Ltd is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). Swissquote Ltd is not authorised by any US authority (such as the CFTC or SEC) neither is it authorised to disseminate offering and solicitation materials for offshore sales of securities and investment services, to make financial promotion or conduct investment or banking activity in the USA whatsoever.
This website may however contain information about services and products that may be considered by US authorities as an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity having an effect in the USA.
By clicking “Continue”, you confirm that you have read and understood this legal information and that you access the website on your own initiative and without any solicitation from Swissquote Ltd.
If cookies are currently disabled on your computer, you will be required to continue accepting this legal information for every new page visited on this website. In order to avoid this, please enable cookies on your computer.
Last week provided investors with a thought provoking dilemma. The ECB extended forward guidance, cut forecasts and highlighted that risk were skewed to the downside. Adding to the dovish feeling of the meeting, ECB announced an additional tranche of TLTRO’s. Our expectations for normalization has been pushed back in 2020 (prior Sept interest rate hike). The market reaction was unexpectedly sharp, we understand the rapid deployment of policy indicates the loose use of powerful tools and inadequacy of central banks defensive growth measures. As for the Fed commentary suggest that growth has peaked. While hardly a trend, the payroll 20k NFP print indicates decelerating growth better than most leading indicators.
Despite significant cost and hype, monetary policy has not driven growth and clearly driven asset bubbles. The relationship between markets and the real economy is loose at best, however, everyone is willing to overlook real weakness when stock prices are elevated. Any tightening by the US Federal Reserve will invert the US yield curve. The Fed must let inflation expectations increase in the short-run and hope it pulls up the long end of the curve. However, the divergence between the market pricing and the real economy is expected to widen in US and Europe: this gap between cheap capital and corporate earnings creates a dangerous void. If price/earning ratios are too high, a fall can become chaotic. 4Q equity correction and Fed pivot indicates central banks are still driven by market fears rather than economic data. And this can become a policy misstep.